Deacons @ Cardinals

Louisville is the favorite here, priced at -550 on DraftKings and -600 at FanDuel, implying roughly an 85-86% chance of winning at home. The résumés, though, are identical on paper: both teams sit at 2-1 through three games, so the market is paying for venue and perceived quality rather than separation in the standings. Where the data does favor the Cardinals is direction — Louisville's last three read LWW, meaning they've won two in a row after an opening stumble, while Wake Forest's WWL sequence has them coming off their most recent loss. That's a real but modest edge to hang an 85% price on, and with only three games of form available the sample is thin on both sides. At +410/+430, Wake needs to win roughly one time in five to break even, and a Deacons squad with the same record as the favorite looks like the more interesting side of that number, with the 57.5 total suggesting oddsmakers expect scoring rather than a blowout script.

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